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Prediction markets for Working Class

Can text based LLMs/ChatGPT create classical music indistinguishable from esteemed human works by 2025?

Dec 9, 3:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.22%chance

273408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1688

797

Will SocialPredict be run by two public organizations by the end of 2024?

Feb 13, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.32%chance

191487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

854

Will I enter a romantic relationship with my best friend before 2025?

Jan 1, 5:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.3%chance

15724322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

1355

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?

Dec 24, 4:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25%chance

20612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

893

What fraction of identical twins cooperate in the prisoner's dilemma?

Oct 21, 1:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.11%chance

141213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

947

Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?

Nov 27, 7:03 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20.99%chance

11272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1114

951

Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?

May 17, 1:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26%chance

17479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

905

Could I buy a legit 8TB (8To) microSD card on amazon before 2026 ?

Dec 13, 2:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.99%chance

401517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

776

Will Sarah Anderson et al vs Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt find that the defendants violated copyright by training Stable Diffusion on images scraped from the Internet?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

423653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

If I try to convince my 105 year old neighbor to sign up for cryonics, will I succeed?

Nov 28, 6:57 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

4.12%chance

382534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1763

917

What programming language or large framework will I learn next?

Nov 9, 3:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11186

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Workers Party GB's George Galloway, Keith Mason Shine in Wakefield at Houses of Parliament for Rochdale Revival
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1 month
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