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Prediction markets for VC

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

There will be more early stage VC rounds done in 2024 than in 2023

Jan 4, 1:51 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

39.67%chance

171541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

949

Will financial institutions launch GPU debt funds to replace VC equity dollars for compute funding in next 12 months?

Oct 13, 8:47 PMOct 2, 3:59 AM

49%chance

6100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

125

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

47.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

236

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.48%chance

155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

44

Will VCARB Visa Cash App RB finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points-per-race than Alpha Tauri the 2023 season?

Feb 19, 4:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.93%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

94

27

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

Will 2022 Atlas Fellows launch startups worth >$100 million by the end of 2024?

Jan 24, 6:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51.56%chance

6717156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

917

Will SpaceX reach $300B valuation in the next year?

Jun 27, 9:28 PMJul 1, 8:59 PM

31.76%chance

12831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1466

682

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.56%chance

15547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

932

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.66%chance

416224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

803

7) Strategic investments from cloud providers into AI startups [...] will be challenged by regulators.

Dec 25, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.95%chance

131057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

889

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