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Prediction markets for User Team

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

Dec 16, 10:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

19718467

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

What will be the most impactful feature developed in 2024?

Mar 1, 7:31 PMJan 1, 7:40 AM

127349679

Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? [ACX 2024]

Jan 1, 1:31 PMJan 2, 6:00 PM

1.33%chance

12025323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9859

120

[Metaculus] Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?

Nov 3, 5:24 PMAug 11, 11:00 PM

78.56%chance

10255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

978

Will prop betting still be a prominent use case on Manifold on September 1st, 2024?

Mar 13, 2:08 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

80.15%chance

12230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

943

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.52%chance

171218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1620

829

If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?

Oct 10, 6:07 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.86%chance

241040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1387

840

Will there be drama caused by Manifold employees' ability to create free M$ by the end of 2025?

Aug 27, 4:38 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

61.04%chance

261185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

960

Will BrierFoxForecast surpass Manifold's 7d avg DAU count by the end of 2025

Oct 22, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.16%chance

2511877

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

931

Resolves NO at 1K traders, unless YES voters have 1000-3000 shares each on average (excluding extremes, see rules)

Feb 29, 8:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.14%chance

41746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

50

Will Manifold have a team in any esport by the end of 2024?

Jun 5, 11:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.54%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

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