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Prediction markets for US Commerce
Prediction markets for US Commerce
Will US E-Commerce penetration return to trendline (16.9% of retail sales) on Q2 2024? [600Ṁ subsidy]
Jul 12, 8:14 PM
Nov 1, 2:59 AM
21.28%
chance
6
701
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1436
440
Who will be US Secretary of Commerce in July 2025?
Apr 18, 10:33 AM
Jul 20, 10:59 PM
2
20
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
40
5760
Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?
Mar 3, 1:27 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
75.06%
chance
63
6769
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1393
898
Will commercial AI tutoring services become prevalent in the US by 2025?
Jun 26, 5:17 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
26.11%
chance
34
2172
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1462
547
How many Boeing commercial aircraft models will be grounded in the US for at least one week in 2024?
Mar 16, 12:04 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
7
225
Lab grown meat commercially available in the US by the end of 2024?
Jun 20, 3:25 AM
Jan 8, 4:59 AM
24.06%
chance
4
348
Option
Votes
YES
NO
178
56
If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:25 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
45.44%
chance
3
210
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1576
1429
If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
Jun 30, 7:29 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
56.74%
chance
3
150
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1645
1373
Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 (2021 USD) per unit before 2025?
Oct 22, 7:00 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13%
chance
11
1115
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1568
783
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