UNR News

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Mar 25, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.08%chance

313534

OptionVotes

YES

2082

788

Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

Mar 17, 5:10 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

78.12%chance

886890

OptionVotes

YES

1982

770

If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?

Dec 31, 2:26 PMFeb 28, 3:59 PM

30.85%chance

471577

OptionVotes

YES

1128

1101

Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25?

Jun 20, 4:33 PMJun 28, 3:59 AM

43.82%chance

409284

OptionVotes

YES

1132

883

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

Jul 26, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.06%chance

181026

OptionVotes

YES

1021

939

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Apr 23, 1:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.47%chance

221921

OptionVotes

YES

1052

797

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Sep 9, 3:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.55%chance

10131

OptionVotes

YES

1075

956

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.83%chance

15228

OptionVotes

YES

1085

959

If many think Trump was unjustly incarcerated and kept from the presidency, will there be extreme civil unrest?

Aug 30, 1:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

22.8%chance

11452

OptionVotes

YES

1109

942

Will an unrestricted GPT-5 be able to make a bioengineered virus?

Jun 17, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.8%chance

333630

OptionVotes

YES

924

923

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:12 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

66%chance

10361

OptionVotes

YES

1059

954

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

11249

OptionVotes

YES

1112

954

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UNR News

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Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?

Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25?

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

If many think Trump was unjustly incarcerated and kept from the presidency, will there be extreme civil unrest?

Will an unrestricted GPT-5 be able to make a bioengineered virus?

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for UNR

Prediction markets for UNR

Prediction markets for UNR

Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?

Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?

Will Harvard make an official statement about a public matter unrelated to its core function by 6/27/25?

Will there be an Arab Spring-style wave of political unrest in the Middle East? [2025]

[Metaculus] Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?

Will Unreal Engine officially support development in Rust before 2030?