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Prediction markets for Union Government

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026?

Oct 17, 1:05 PMJan 31, 3:59 PM

25.84%chance

16413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

959

Will sortition be used as an alternative to elections for any administrative division of government before 2060?

Aug 28, 12:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

77%chance

10267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

959

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.8%chance

321097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

832

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states until 2050?

Dec 21, 5:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.21%chance

16342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

963

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.75%chance

10154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

930

Deployment of EU Ground Combat Troops to Ukraine by End of 2024

Nov 7, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.02%chance

10515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

978

Will there be a Moldovan-Romanian union by the end of 2024?

Feb 16, 1:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.07%chance

373357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3602

787

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe in 2024

Sep 11, 4:23 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

34.38%chance

425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

93

Will there be a solution to the Cyprus problem before 2029?

Nov 23, 11:47 AMDec 30, 9:59 PM

19.19%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

74

When will the Brazilian National Data Protection Authority (ANPD) publish its first dataset on dados.gov.br?

Feb 8, 10:24 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

14432

Will Sindifisco's appeal against the STJ's R$1.3 million fine be successful?

Dec 15, 8:22 PMDec 23, 3:59 AM

61.83%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

146

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