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Prediction markets for UK House of Commons

Will a member of the UK Parliament's House of Commons be known to have used a psychedelic drug by the end of 2024?

Jan 31, 4:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.7%chance

20420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

987

Will the UK have Proportional Representation of the House of Commons by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.21%chance

24644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

935

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Oct 27, 4:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.81%chance

10190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

955

Will the Liberal Democrats win more than 30 seats in the House of Commons in the next UK general election?

Dec 9, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.08%chance

424854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4477

363

[Metaculus] Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?

Jan 1, 10:46 AMJan 28, 12:00 AM

95.06%chance

11806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

940

Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House of Commons (UK Parliament) by the end of 2024?

Feb 24, 9:36 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

94.9%chance

6602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

701

62

Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister?

Apr 30, 8:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.59%chance

3811245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15581

3115

Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?

May 27, 1:33 AMJul 5, 10:59 PM

93.44%chance

3810819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4851

325

Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 40 seats at the next UK general election?

May 10, 11:06 AMMar 1, 12:00 PM

89.1%chance

284294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2299

105

Will Michael Gove lose his seat at the next general election?

May 7, 11:41 AMMar 1, 12:00 PM

25.71%chance

152370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

923

🗳️ UK General Election — 2024 Quiz

Jul 3, 9:04 AMJul 4, 9:00 PM

141217

Will John Redwood lose his seat at the next general election?

May 7, 11:41 AMMar 1, 12:00 PM

46.6%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

121

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