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Prediction markets for Time Research

Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030

Nov 27, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.63%chance

16550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

937

Will research towards time travel be a cause area of Effective Altruism before 2030?

May 8, 1:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.24%chance

13442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

941

Will Balsa Research have 2 or more full-time employees at its five year mark?

Nov 14, 9:49 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.79%chance

8810121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11417

8973

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

52.36%chance

1500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10483

9539

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.51%chance

46787952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7155

5012

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7198

4144

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

124930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5204

3441

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.44%chance

1416120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18895

1065

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.81%chance

81118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4069

3096

Will AI resolve P vs NP by 2050?

Jan 31, 12:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.87%chance

381564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2842

2160

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