Third Point News

In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?

Apr 25, 6:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

202166

Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election?

Jun 13, 12:30 PMDec 1, 8:59 PM

56.15%chance

171501

OptionVotes

YES

1132

884

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Mar 17, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

675189

OptionVotes

YES

1716

271

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.84%chance

10922

OptionVotes

YES

1004

962

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.31%chance

10395

OptionVotes

YES

1451

1094

Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?

Apr 7, 9:55 AMJan 3, 5:59 AM

78.52%chance

403485

OptionVotes

YES

1917

310

Will I be able to schedule bets on Manifold before 2025?

Oct 2, 9:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.13%chance

16804

OptionVotes

YES

1085

949

Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?

Jun 10, 3:36 PMJul 13, 3:59 AM

25.94%chance

685624

OptionVotes

YES

1690

592

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.88%chance

161520

OptionVotes

YES

1243

874

Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate?

Aug 24, 8:34 PMNov 7, 7:59 AM

21%chance

12543

OptionVotes

YES

1167

911

By 2024, will at least one red state governor begin sending migrant buses at scale to swing states? (250M subsidy)

Sep 24, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.78%chance

10302

OptionVotes

YES

1131

885

Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?

Jan 2, 11:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.01%chance

16628

OptionVotes

YES

1220

869

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Third Point News

Prediction markets for Third Point

Prediction markets for Third Point

Prediction markets for Third Point

In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?

Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election?

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?

Will I be able to schedule bets on Manifold before 2025?

Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Will the 2024 DNC and RNC Nominees Engage in a Long-Form Debate?

By 2024, will at least one red state governor begin sending migrant buses at scale to swing states? (250M subsidy)

Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Third Point

Prediction markets for Third Point

Prediction markets for Third Point

In what ways will Manifold be like Fliff, the social sports betting app inspiring the Pivot, by end of year?

Will any RealClearPolitics "battleground state" final polling average be off by 6 or more points in the 2024 election?

Will A.I. Have Significantly More Common Sense by end of 2024?

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?

Will I be able to schedule bets on Manifold before 2025?