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Jeff Bezos Reassures Washington Post Staff on Ethics Amid CEO Will Lewis Controversy
Authors
11
13 days
Economics
Business

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Jun 20, 9:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

234877

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

Feb 18, 3:48 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

43.69%chance

143642

OptionVotes

YES

6390

2461

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.75%chance

9447154

OptionVotes

YES

1409

1310

Who will post the most-liked tweet of 2024?

Nov 16, 8:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10110244

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?

Feb 16, 6:29 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.75%chance

1126836

OptionVotes

YES

1556

1062

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

Feb 15, 11:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.92%chance

135489

OptionVotes

YES

1168

922

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Nov 24, 6:50 PMJan 1, 8:42 AM

52.83%chance

14212

OptionVotes

YES

1027

971

Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 11:22 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

30.2%chance

21523

OptionVotes

YES

1032

882

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 6:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

44.06%chance

13386

OptionVotes

YES

1139

737

Will Robert Winnett be employed as editor of the Washington Post at any time in 2024?

Jun 17, 2:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ?

Jun 22, 9:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.53%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

1051

952

Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024?

Jun 5, 2:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.73%chance

61185

OptionVotes

YES

1206

829

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What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Who will post the most-liked tweet of 2024?

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?

Will Manifold's post-money valuation be higher than Kalshi's at the end of 2027?

By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?

Will "The Story of "I Have Been A Good Bing"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will "My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will Robert Winnett be employed as editor of the Washington Post at any time in 2024?

Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ?

Will Tetra make an alignment-focused LessWrong post that she is proud of by the end of 2024?

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Prediction markets for The Post

Prediction markets for The Post

Prediction markets for The Post

What will the single largest post-pivot trade on Manifold be in 2024?

Will a Masters ranked user post a video of themselves hitting the griddy before Trump announces his running mate?

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Who will post the most-liked tweet of 2024?

Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?