The NYT News

Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?

Mar 12, 2:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

233793

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

Jun 18, 1:02 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

2.96%chance

359750

OptionVotes

YES

2700

871

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39137123

Will the NYT lawsuit against OpenAI and MSFT go to trial?

Dec 27, 6:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.54%chance

18913336

OptionVotes

YES

2128

1183

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

YES

1631

608

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Dec 27, 9:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.74%chance

748685

OptionVotes

YES

1581

922

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 3:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.66%chance

563125

OptionVotes

YES

1119

872

Will the word "gooncave" appear in a NYT article before 2025?

Dec 23, 7:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.05%chance

452904

OptionVotes

YES

2186

713

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Oct 22, 10:02 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

84.84%chance

191043

OptionVotes

YES

1177

945

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.73%chance

292048

OptionVotes

YES

1755

675

Will an LLM co/author a NYT Bestseller in the next year?

Aug 17, 10:15 PMAug 18, 6:59 AM

7.62%chance

454425

OptionVotes

YES

3260

529

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2024?

Mar 26, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.19%chance

423033

OptionVotes

YES

2683

524

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The NYT News

Prediction markets for The NYT

Prediction markets for The NYT

Prediction markets for The NYT

Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will the NYT lawsuit against OpenAI and MSFT go to trial?

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?

Will the word "gooncave" appear in a NYT article before 2025?

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Will an LLM co/author a NYT Bestseller in the next year?

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The NYT

Prediction markets for The NYT

Prediction markets for The NYT

Which conspiracies will be confirmed in the NYT before 2040?

Will a NYT article containing the word "rationalussy" be published before 2025?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will the NYT lawsuit against OpenAI and MSFT go to trial?

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

Will a book claimed to be written by an AI make the NYT best seller list before the end of 2025?