The Institute News

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.44%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

1576

1429

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.74%chance

3150

OptionVotes

YES

1645

1373

[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

May 18, 4:42 PMJan 2, 9:00 AM

29.47%chance

7810

OptionVotes

YES

1547

646

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Apr 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.83%chance

14541

OptionVotes

YES

1117

939

Will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025 if elected?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.95%chance

13486

OptionVotes

YES

1159

899

🗳️🧮☑️ Ballot Props: Will Nevada institute rank choice voting after the 2024 elections?

Feb 27, 2:33 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

61.74%chance

12207

OptionVotes

YES

1012

985

Will the Nati'l Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism & CDC introduce stricter alcohol consumption guidelines by 2025?

Aug 26, 3:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

34.63%chance

361675

OptionVotes

YES

1162

882

Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?

Jan 7, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

261345

OptionVotes

YES

1534

870

Will the UK institute national service before the next general election?

May 26, 11:00 AMJul 8, 10:59 PM

3.12%chance

204620

OptionVotes

YES

5577

179

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

May 8, 11:44 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM

10%chance

13264

OptionVotes

YES

1125

980

By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem?

Dec 4, 1:14 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

6.5%chance

235875

OptionVotes

YES

1887

867

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Mar 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.2%chance

141344

OptionVotes

YES

1505

899

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The Institute News

Prediction markets for The Institute

Prediction markets for The Institute

Prediction markets for The Institute

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025 if elected?

🗳️🧮☑️ Ballot Props: Will Nevada institute rank choice voting after the 2024 elections?

Will the Nati'l Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism & CDC introduce stricter alcohol consumption guidelines by 2025?

Will China institute a naval blockade of Taiwan before the end of 2025?

Will the UK institute national service before the next general election?

Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?

By the start of 2026, will the Clay Mathematics Institute award its monetary prize for the solution of another Millennium Prize Problem?

Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸

Latest stories

Prediction markets for The Institute

Prediction markets for The Institute

Prediction markets for The Institute

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

If Biden wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?

Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?

Will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025 if elected?

🗳️🧮☑️ Ballot Props: Will Nevada institute rank choice voting after the 2024 elections?

Will the Nati'l Institute on Alcohol Abuse & Alcoholism & CDC introduce stricter alcohol consumption guidelines by 2025?