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The Insider Paper News
Prediction markets for The Insider Paper
Prediction markets for The Insider Paper
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PM
Feb 1, 7:59 AM
43.11%
chance
714
302497
Option
Votes
NO
YES
21793
17437
What will be the parameter count (in trillions) of the largest neural network by the end of 2030?
May 26, 10:06 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
5
420
What will be the first neutron star radius measured, in km?
Jul 14, 7:07 PM
Jul 2, 5:59 AM
39.5%
chance
5
56
Option
Votes
YES
NO
265
222
Will behavioral prediction markets be used in a dating app before 2025?
Nov 6, 3:03 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
58.04%
chance
3
30
Option
Votes
NO
YES
102
80
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