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Prediction markets for The Advocate

Will a large publication advocate for intentionally giving people disabilities by the end of 2025?

Feb 16, 11:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.57%chance

14404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

Will a major political party or politician advocate for voter registration to include captcha by the end of 2025?

Mar 7, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.08%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

204

What will Trump do during his second term (2025–2029)?

Jan 22, 7:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9312411

What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)

Jun 19, 6:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6733726

Will any 2024 US presidential debate mention a strict ban on AI process such as that advocated for by Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Mar 30, 4:01 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

16.73%chance

491600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

846

Will there be at least one full-length ad at the 2025 Super Bowl focused on AI safety advocacy?

Feb 13, 1:52 PMFeb 15, 4:59 AM

9.39%chance

31979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

939

Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?

May 8, 10:15 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

11.46%chance

5521586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

931

During 2024 there will be a public statement of member of government advocating for depression (reducing GDP)

Dec 17, 4:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.26%chance

252

OptionVotes

NO

YES

97

83

By 2050, will any world leader have advocated for "utilitarian Von Neumann machines"?

Jun 19, 1:14 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.75%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

64

Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030

Feb 21, 8:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.98%chance

7296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

152

Will "EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Feb 18, 2:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

35.56%chance

864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

185

124

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.46%chance

705493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6274

6067

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