Test News

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52%chance

836523479

OptionVotes

YES

10317

9584

Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?

Jun 6, 2:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85%chance

4219377

OptionVotes

YES

13904

8901

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

802270717

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

55%chance

588028

OptionVotes

YES

1010

929

Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July?

Jun 19, 2:29 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

6%chance

3434132

OptionVotes

YES

3958

253

Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?

Dec 1, 7:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

11528864

OptionVotes

YES

9907

2767

Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?

Jun 7, 3:59 PMAug 15, 3:59 AM

82275

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.91%chance

4726262

OptionVotes

YES

1117

704

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.21%chance

7911319

OptionVotes

YES

1816

1090

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

Aug 12, 10:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

282488

OptionVotes

YES

1209

669

Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon during 2024?

Dec 13, 5:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.93%chance

467208

OptionVotes

YES

1639

745

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Feb 27, 9:20 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

80.57%chance

867069

OptionVotes

YES

2102

722

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Test News

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July?

Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?

Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon during 2024?

Will GPT-5 score at least 100 in an IQ test?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

Prediction markets for Test

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July?

Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?

Will SpaceX’s 5th Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?