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Prediction markets for Terms of Service

Will Waymo give public rides to/from SFO airport terminals (driverless or not) by the end of 2024?

Dec 12, 4:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

261118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

930

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

132914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

955

Will tumblr re-tighten its restrictions on porn in 2024?

Mar 16, 9:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.05%chance

21605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1482

801

Will YouTube back out of their Adblock crackdown before 2025?

Oct 19, 8:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.9%chance

302792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

734

Will a humanoid robot provide some kind of commercial service to me by 2026?

Mar 10, 10:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

18885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1347

887

Will OpenAI sanction porn on at least one of its models before 2025?

Oct 9, 11:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.9%chance

574532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

933

7) Strategic investments from cloud providers into AI startups [...] will be challenged by regulators.

Dec 25, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.95%chance

131057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1389

889

Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on Jan 1, 2025?

Feb 25, 1:21 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.01%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

61

Will Massachusetts East-West rail be under construction before 2027?

Mar 13, 12:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.34%chance

7205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

458

182

Will an emerging infectious disease be the top BBC Health item on September 1, 2024?

Feb 25, 1:22 AMSep 1, 11:59 PM

45.31%chance

2300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

96

76

Will Brazilian House Speaker Arthur Lira be formally accused of corruption before Jan 31, 2025?

Jul 8, 12:30 PMFeb 1, 2:59 AM

4.93%chance

5464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

52

when will x/twitter officially launch peer-to-peer payments?

Jan 9, 3:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15325

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