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Prediction markets for Street

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on Sesame Street by 2030?

Mar 9, 3:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.9%chance

7410062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1632

1394

Will there still be a bi-directional center bike lane on Valencia Street in San Francisco at the end of 2025?

May 21, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.77%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1194

838

Will IKEA announce the closure of its SF market street location before Jan 1, 2025.

Sep 27, 10:26 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

26%chance

10420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1145

916

Will there be a Wall Street Stock Market Crash before 2027?

Nov 6, 11:11 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

48.77%chance

11352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

959

Will at least 1 out of 100 pedestrians wear an AR headset on a street near me in 2030?

Mar 30, 9:35 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

47.76%chance

13168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

969

Will Sesame Street end before a human walks on Mars?

Dec 26, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.54%chance

29612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

875

Will NYC close an entire street to cars before 2050?

May 22, 8:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.38%chance

81070

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2024

494

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.91%chance

13377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

924

Will Dall-E type technologies destroy demand for itinerant street art sellers in Peru as proxy for Latam before end of 2024?

Jan 6, 2:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.37%chance

11330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

948

Effective Altruist purge at Jane Street before Oct. 2025

Oct 2, 7:25 AMOct 1, 9:59 PM

4.61%chance

231798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

913

Will the yearly average NO2 concentration in the streets of Berlin be below 30 µg/m³ at the beginning of 2030?

Aug 27, 7:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.76%chance

6168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

124

Will City Street Navigation be available for all Tesla cars with FSD in China by the end of 2024?

Aug 8, 1:01 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

69.49%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

95

53

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