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Prediction markets for State government

Is the US government currently (2023) hiding AI capabilities beyond the current state of the art? (Resolves 2040)

Nov 29, 11:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.03%chance

8293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

477

139

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.76%chance

499505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

698

Will there be a head of state and/or government of a G20 country with a background in Effective Altrusim (EA) by 2035?

Dec 11, 12:49 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.34%chance

16792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

971

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

Jul 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.17%chance

482307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

891

Will the German government declare a state of emergency ("Notlage") for the 2024 budget?

Feb 10, 8:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.96%chance

19429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1231

871

Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?

Jan 2, 1:11 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

11417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

911

Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.06%chance

17373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

865

Will a U.S. state secede or declare civil war with the U.S. Federal government after January 2, 2025?

Aug 3, 8:01 PMJan 4, 6:59 AM

10.52%chance

14657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

957

Will the right-wing party AfD participate in a state-level government in Germany for the first time in 2024?

Jan 30, 4:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.89%chance

365500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1762

878

Will at least one U.S. State or the Federal Government mandate converting road signs to the metric system before 2035?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

963

Will the German CDU be part of a governing coalition with the Afd on the state or federal level before 2025?

Jul 21, 8:08 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1.26%chance

163936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3580

873

Will the United State recognize a new government in Bolivia by the end of 2024?

Jun 26, 8:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.55%chance

7380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

291

34

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