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Prediction markets for Space One

Will we have at least ONE colony in space by 2050?

Dec 15, 9:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

66.65%chance

23347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

932

Which space agency or corporation will be the first to successfully land a spacecraft on one of Jupiter's moons?

Apr 2, 12:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4179

Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

13983

"Boat Owners Only" sign - correct interpretation? at Morro Bay, CA

Nov 25, 8:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131366

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.31%chance

391548406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16048

13103

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26232

3281

By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?

May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.63%chance

12323821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

1191

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Nov 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.86%chance

95118851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1270

600

Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2100?

Jul 3, 7:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.67%chance

8750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1577

634

🤗 Will I organize another cuddle puddle in SF Bay Area?

Jun 11, 3:55 PMOct 1, 6:59 AM

77.13%chance

121179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1836

545

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.82%chance

664106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

1040

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1631

608

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Space One's Kairos Rocket Explodes on Inaugural Launch Wednesday
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