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Prediction markets for Space Force
Prediction markets for Space Force
Police force in space any time through 2033
Sep 19, 5:03 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
9.61%
chance
11
246
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1182
954
Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2030?
Oct 19, 2:46 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
24.23%
chance
5
136
Option
Votes
YES
NO
152
85
Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2035?
Oct 19, 2:47 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
53.13%
chance
4
76
Option
Votes
NO
YES
81
56
Will the United States Space Force suffer their first death of a guardian on duty before the end of 2025?
Apr 3, 9:49 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
26.11%
chance
6
85
Option
Votes
YES
NO
305
173
Will Space Force operate a crewed space craft by 2040?
Oct 19, 2:50 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
59.02%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
NO
YES
60
42
First to land humans on the moon again?
Jan 31, 2:00 AM
Dec 1, 4:59 AM
48
4435
By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?
Jan 9, 3:33 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
53.82%
chance
73
7617
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1631
608
Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040?
May 14, 7:50 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
59.51%
chance
3
43
Option
Votes
NO
YES
89
53
When will human-scale centrifugal artificial gravity be first tested in space?
Feb 26, 12:55 PM
Feb 1, 10:59 PM
32
2579
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?
Oct 24, 7:31 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
24.62%
chance
3
45
Option
Votes
YES
NO
155
86
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?
Oct 24, 7:36 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
40.98%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
80
62
Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?
Oct 24, 7:33 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
19.84%
chance
6
154
Option
Votes
YES
NO
220
55
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