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Prediction markets for Solv

Chess with queen odds solved by 2040?

Jan 25, 2:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.8%chance

12570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

862

Will chess be solved by 2040?

Sep 29, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.97%chance

1461447000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2271

1617

Will chess be solved by 2100?

Nov 18, 10:58 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

27.48%chance

476707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1362

790

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Apr 16, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

252163582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2308

1375

Will "narcissistic, orgying tech nerds" solve social ills?

Oct 8, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.61%chance

8923746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

880

Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

6.18%chance

538894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

744

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.33%chance

535969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

770

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.63%chance

7915992

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3021

1249

Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?

Mar 16, 5:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72%chance

25717486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2595

2329

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

70.04%chance

8016337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

975

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

36.55%chance

10451006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1031

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12.1%chance

254297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

948

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