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Prediction markets for Slate
Prediction markets for Slate
Will a blank-slate AI prove the infinitude of primes by 2025-11-03?
Nov 3, 6:08 PM
Nov 4, 5:59 AM
35.68%
chance
122
16258
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2906
987
How will a blank-slate AI first prove the infinitude of primes?
Nov 10, 12:28 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
6
36
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?
Mar 18, 6:08 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
16.46%
chance
276
100830
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5123
798
Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?
Jan 13, 6:14 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
33.92%
chance
14
769
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1128
617
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
Sep 11, 6:06 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
78.38%
chance
12
214
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1139
937
Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program?
Jun 16, 9:40 PM
Nov 16, 4:59 AM
19.2%
chance
31
1354
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2052
487
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will iPhone sales in 2024 exceed sales in 2023?
Feb 7, 1:46 PM
Mar 1, 3:59 PM
55.76%
chance
35
1624
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1058
886
Will FedNow handle more fund flows than ACH by the end of 2025
Nov 1, 5:09 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
15%
chance
11
396
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1251
914
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the leader of the Likud party for the next Israeli legislative elections? 🗳️
Nov 18, 4:34 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
81.05%
chance
22
1377
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1870
617
Will a new main series Pokemon game be released in 2024?
Mar 28, 6:21 AM
Dec 2, 5:59 AM
4.34%
chance
11
1178
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1736
883
NFL Week One - Prop Bets
May 2, 12:59 PM
Jan 4, 4:59 AM
17
1406
When will NASA's VIPER mission launch?
Mar 5, 5:55 AM
Jun 2, 6:59 AM
8
4355
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51
1 month
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5
3 months
Culture
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