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Prediction markets for SET

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

183743

Will Elon Musk ever set foot on Mars?

Aug 4, 2:39 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19%chance

7115270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

978

Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade

Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.43%chance

12722544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1721

942

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

72.16%chance

703068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

1068

Will Alec Baldwin be found Not Guilty in his upcoming criminal trial for the movie set shooting death?

Mar 8, 6:42 AMAug 6, 3:59 AM

64.7%chance

413451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1170

870

Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Mar 26, 1:07 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

65%chance

18362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

735

Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?

Jul 14, 11:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

61.28%chance

19795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

796

Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?

Jan 10, 2:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

66%chance

11215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

958

Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?

Jan 31, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.28%chance

14462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

729

Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?

Jun 20, 3:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Chappell Roan wear a cowboy hat at any point during her 2024 Lollapalooza set?

May 20, 12:07 AMJul 26, 4:59 AM

50.7%chance

235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

986

Will my DJ set at Jesscamp 4 contain any AI-generated music?

May 21, 8:57 AMDec 29, 4:59 AM

39.31%chance

2250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Articles

Latest stories

Pichai Chunhavajira's Removal from SET Board Fuels Finance Minister Speculation; Thai Foreign Minister Resigns Abruptly
Authors
5
2 months
China
World

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