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Prediction markets for Securities Times

In 2024, will the NY Times mention the removal of part of a credit card's number or its CVV as a security enhancer?

Jan 18, 6:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.38%chance

543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

132

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

253259

Will the Labour Party win a landslide victory in the next UK general election? [100 seat majority]

Sep 19, 6:03 AMJul 3, 10:59 PM

90.34%chance

12713368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3374

371

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

14835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will Amazon accept cryptocurrency before December 31st 2028?

Mar 22, 9:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27%chance

445872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

757

Will Social Security become insolvent before 2040?

Jun 28, 4:48 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.93%chance

6589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Will Bitcoin Sustain $100K for a Day Before 2025?

Nov 8, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.71%chance

175666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

983

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

132914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

955

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

32.39%chance

15956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

659

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.42%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

911

Will there be a reliable technology to sign videos such that it reliably resists AI fakes?

Feb 15, 12:08 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

24.66%chance

13504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

971

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