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Prediction markets for Secular

Will Saudi Arabia roll back any of MBS’s secularizing reforms by end of 2024?

May 28, 3:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

32.61%chance

8450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

696

Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 26, 5:33 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

75.38%chance

22768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

964

Will "Secular" be officially removed from the Preamble to the Constitution of India before 2028?

Jan 24, 5:06 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.1%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

955

Is the downward secular trend in female puberty mostly genetic?

Apr 8, 2:58 AMApr 9, 6:59 AM

10.05%chance

12376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

926

Will the causal factors for the global secular decline in men's testosterone levels become clear by 2028?

May 25, 4:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.52%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

108

Will "General Thoughts on Secular Solstice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 26, 9:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.13%chance

3130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

147

Will the Seven Secular Sermons be completed in 2024?

Feb 15, 7:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.98%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

60

42

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Apr 30, 7:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

77.93%chance

15940365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21958

9287

Will Mother Nature influence the US Elections in 2024

Jan 11, 11:38 PMNov 12, 7:59 AM

24.9%chance

12286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

958

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Will I believe in an afterlife before 2025?

Dec 28, 12:43 AMDec 31, 8:01 AM

18.08%chance

14373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

954

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJul 2, 6:59 PM

3814702

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