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Top stories

Martin Shkreli Faces Backlash for Doxxing Minors and Launching Memecoin
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6
4 days
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Secret Service Enhances Trump Security Detail by 1000% Amid Heightened Threats, Prepares for Running Mate
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Prediction markets for Secret Service

If Trump is sentenced to jail time will the Secret Service go with him?

Aug 19, 12:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.25%chance

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NO

YES

1738

1074

Will RFK Jr. be approved for Secret Service protection before August 2024?

May 20, 1:57 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

20.51%chance

194497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1968

508

Will RFK Jr. receive Secret Service protection before election day?

Feb 17, 7:49 AMNov 6, 6:59 AM

35.05%chance

171068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1032

926

Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody?

Aug 2, 3:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.71%chance

13383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

946

Will Secret Service protection be withdrawn from Donald Trump prior to the presidential election in November?

Jun 4, 3:34 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

161086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Secret Service stock

Apr 9, 8:31 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

17356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

320

298

🟠Who would have to be running for Manifold to vote for Donald Trump in a presidential election? #2

Feb 28, 7:57 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

7132940

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.01%chance

9900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will a Trump supporter attempt to physically assault Mike Pence before the 2024 election?

Aug 6, 5:39 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

17.72%chance

522626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

866

How many companies on this list will have been sued on copyright grounds over their use of AI before 2025?

Mar 22, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.51%chance

11379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

737

How many listed companies will have been sued for copyright over AI, and have the trial resolved, before 2025?

Mar 22, 5:39 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.38%chance

29

OptionVotes

NO

YES

298

255

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27.73%chance

446

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

104

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