Science and Technology News

If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?

May 22, 10:17 AMMay 29, 9:59 PM

121088

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.66%chance

714302247

OptionVotes

YES

21979

17194

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

35.18%chance

8412035

OptionVotes

YES

1868

515

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.81%chance

81118

OptionVotes

YES

4069

3096

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

70.27%chance

10336

OptionVotes

YES

1062

963

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.44%chance

113016

OptionVotes

YES

1740

771

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

1033

921

Will UCLA SETI announce the finding of an extraterrestrial, non-human technosignature before 2033?

Feb 25, 5:13 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

15.22%chance

10372

OptionVotes

YES

1121

955

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.12%chance

17595

OptionVotes

YES

988

970

Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?

Aug 7, 6:33 AMAug 7, 2:59 PM

6.85%chance

201833

OptionVotes

YES

1890

730

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.06%chance

181432

OptionVotes

YES

1342

940

Have VERSES and Karl Friston achieved a "breakthrough in active inference" that beats GPT-4 on BIG-bench before 2025?

Dec 19, 9:06 PMDec 31, 10:02 PM

8.03%chance

14977

OptionVotes

YES

1075

965

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Science and Technology News

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will UCLA SETI announce the finding of an extraterrestrial, non-human technosignature before 2033?

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Will the "Carbon–cement supercapacitors as a scalable bulk energy storage solution" replicate by 2024 August 07?

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Have VERSES and Karl Friston achieved a "breakthrough in active inference" that beats GPT-4 on BIG-bench before 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

Prediction markets for Science and Technology

If an AI wipes out humanity on Earth, what will be true of this AI?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.