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Prediction markets for SAFER

Will the SAFER Banking Act for cannabis become law in the U.S. before January 1, 2025?

Feb 13, 9:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.58%chance

19706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

768

Will San Francisco in 2025 be significantly safer than in 2022?

Apr 10, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.4%chance

10316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

953

A multipolar AGI scenario is safer than a singleton AGI scenario

Nov 14, 9:02 PMNov 23, 7:59 AM

29.84%chance

549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

107

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Apr 22, 4:38 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

13727

Will the Secure and Fair Enforcement Regulation (SAFER) Banking Act be law by January 1st, 2025?

Aug 4, 4:23 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

32.48%chance

2123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86

57

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Jan 17, 4:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

281840

Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024?

Jan 3, 5:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75%chance

16735475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2453

657

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

30%chance

353563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

925

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?

Jan 30, 10:23 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.47%chance

29904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

829

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.58%chance

6211420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3265

306

Do skinless sardines contain 40% less arsenic?

May 10, 3:04 AMDec 31, 6:00 PM

36.47%chance

647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

138

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Congress Passes Fire Safety Act Awaiting Biden's Signature; States Get Major Housing Funds
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2 months
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