Search
News Chat
Login
Search
Top
For You
Business
Crypto
Culture
Environment
Politics
Science
Sports
Tech
Video Games
World
Rough Trade News
Prediction markets for Rough Trade
Prediction markets for Rough Trade
Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher, lower, or roughly the same at the end of 2024, compared to the end of 2023?
Feb 2, 5:07 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
1
30
Do we live in a simulation?
Nov 24, 11:09 PM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
30.18%
chance
41
1963
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1154
910
Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?
Nov 24, 6:21 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
75.78%
chance
210
65353
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2487
1031
Will Manifold launch real money prizes, and still have them at the end of 2024?
Apr 28, 3:36 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
136
12857
Will there be 5+ "thought leaders" that became so due in part to trading success on prediction markets by end of 2026?
Jan 4, 4:16 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
33.62%
chance
23
822
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1060
790
Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026?
Apr 25, 11:07 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
60.09%
chance
61
2681
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1027
889
Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)
Mar 8, 7:30 PM
Mar 9, 4:59 AM
16.54%
chance
19
664
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1388
876
If polled in 2025, will the majority of Manifold users say this site has become their primary social media platform?
Oct 10, 6:07 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
16.86%
chance
24
1040
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1387
840
Will Manifold become overrun with fake women profiles?
Feb 25, 11:34 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
15.44%
chance
14
681
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1170
933
By March 14, 2025, will there be an AI model with over 10 trillion parameters?
Jul 31, 6:45 AM
Mar 14, 6:29 PM
66.42%
chance
41
1443
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1256
792
Will Alibaba ($BABA) trade higher or lower by the end of 2033, compared to the end of 2023.
Feb 2, 5:13 AM
Feb 1, 10:59 PM
2
31
What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?
Feb 6, 4:25 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
20
1070
Articles
Latest stories
Green Day's 'Saviors' Album Sparks Mixed Reactions, Repeats Anti-MAGA Lyrics, Celebrates at Rough Trade
Authors
12
6 months
Culture
Previous
Next
