Search
News Chat
Login
Search
Top
For You
Business
Crypto
Culture
Environment
Politics
Science
Sports
Tech
Video Games
World
Role Models News
Prediction markets for Role Models
Prediction markets for Role Models
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
Oct 15, 2:37 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
8.17%
chance
260
67806
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2990
1675
8) The Microsoft/OpenAI relationship will begin to fray.
Dec 25, 1:38 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
68.29%
chance
51
5113
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1178
893
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?
Dec 15, 12:39 AM
Jan 2, 6:29 PM
41.17%
chance
32
1194
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1196
794
Will GPT-5 be publicly released before Andrej Karpathy rejoins OpenAI a second time?
Mar 2, 2:16 AM
Dec 3, 4:59 AM
89.99%
chance
11
341
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1321
916
4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin.
Dec 25, 1:33 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
92.3%
chance
37
1358
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1549
911
In what year will an OpenAI natural language processing model be more competent than me in my area of expertise?
Dec 14, 4:38 PM
Dec 30, 11:00 PM
2.1%
chance
21
900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1600
980
Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?
May 9, 1:16 PM
Mar 5, 10:59 PM
24.65%
chance
3
96
Option
Votes
YES
NO
294
148
PM3: Airline status will get harder to earn—but premium co-branded credit cards will help.
Jan 2, 2:45 PM
Dec 24, 2:39 PM
50%
chance
1
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Did Annie Duke do anything that I would personally consider significantly unethical?
Nov 18, 10:31 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
40.86%
chance
5
16
Option
Votes
YES
NO
160
142
Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?
May 8, 11:00 PM
Mar 5, 10:59 PM
18.94%
chance
9
241
Option
Votes
YES
NO
412
90
Articles
Latest stories
Helen Mirren and Kylie Minogue Honored with Barbie Dolls for International Women's Day and Barbie's 65th Anniversary in Role Models Collection
Authors
18
4 months
Britain
World
Barbie Introduces New Role Model Dolls Honoring Dame Helen Mirren, Shania Twain, Kylie Minogue, and Viola Davis with Excitement
Authors
12
4 months
Culture
Previous
Next
