Research and Development News

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

Apr 16, 5:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

312004

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Nov 29, 11:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13303

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Jun 29, 5:49 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

44.43%chance

7274

OptionVotes

YES

1118

894

Will auditable global info systems be developed that harness the protocols applied to scientific research?

Apr 8, 5:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.19%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

361

202

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.79%chance

8810121

OptionVotes

YES

11417

8973

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

5697

3703

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

36.81%chance

81118

OptionVotes

YES

4069

3096

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.38%chance

213391

OptionVotes

YES

3809

3207

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

14.33%chance

445505

OptionVotes

YES

5319

1305

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Apr 19, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.37%chance

959592

OptionVotes

YES

1993

1938

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 8:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.45%chance

759449

OptionVotes

YES

1758

569

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Research and Development News

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Will auditable global info systems be developed that harness the protocols applied to scientific research?

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

Prediction markets for Research and Development

What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Will the majority of developed nations prioritize funding for longevity research over space exploration by 2035?

Will auditable global info systems be developed that harness the protocols applied to scientific research?

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?