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Prediction markets for Relations

Will any spaceship exceed 10% of the speed of light relative to its planet of origin before 9999?

Jul 13, 5:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.82%chance

69126413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

1384

Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?

Jun 11, 8:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.28%chance

173210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13145

8666

Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?

Sep 2, 8:54 AMSep 9, 10:59 PM

31.64%chance

517591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1371

658

Will Kelsey Piper receive a Pulitzer Prize related to her coverage on any AI company/lab within the next 10 years?

May 23, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.41%chance

3210651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8466

1486

Will there be a relatively self-sustaining extraterrestial colony before 2050?

Jun 11, 7:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

508066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?

Aug 9, 1:33 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

17.89%chance

32044468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5189

1569

[Anti-woke activism] How many anti-ESG proposals will large companies face in 2025 relative to 2024?

Jun 16, 1:22 PMJul 31, 6:59 AM

6370

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.47%chance

373858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7844

5349

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

Dec 15, 12:39 AMJan 2, 6:29 PM

41.17%chance

321194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

794

In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?

Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.64%chance

38913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

978

Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?

Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.48%chance

353900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

899

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.42%chance

421449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

839

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