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Prediction markets for Refused

Will a US local election official refuse to certify any state or federal election results in 2024?

Dec 2, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.59%chance

492567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

1188

Will a US state legislature refuse to recognise the popular vote winner in the state in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Jul 6, 9:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

28.01%chance

26600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

974

Will a sitting US President refuse to follow or ignore a Supreme Court ruling by 2032?

Feb 22, 3:54 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.1%chance

15445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

911

Will the losing candidate in the 2024 presidential election refuse to concede defeat?

Feb 18, 9:07 PMNov 5, 5:00 AM

33.62%chance

635426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

946

Will Manifold be deplatformed by any of their payment processors or webhosting services over a refusal to moderate content?

Oct 31, 1:07 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

19%chance

19565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

949

Will OpenAI release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:44 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

17.23%chance

10279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

912

Will Google release a model that refuses to talk about Tiananmen square, before 2026?

Jan 18, 9:47 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

10.25%chance

437425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2163

737

If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Democrat, the Republican candidate will refuse to concede defeat

Oct 18, 8:03 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

92.3%chance

6118484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3420

431

If the winner of the 2024 Presidential election is a Republican, the Democratic candidate will refuse to concede defeat

Oct 18, 10:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

5.7%chance

302649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

839

Which countries will refuse to recognize the results of the 2024 Venezuelan presidential elections?

Jun 23, 12:52 PMAug 4, 9:59 PM

215

Will the United States refuse to honor an article 5 call by a NATO country by 2029 year end?

Feb 23, 2:26 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.68%chance

8467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

748

269

Harvard's admission refusal number goes up in class of 2028

Jan 3, 12:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

17%chance

4139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

23

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Refused Cancels Rosendal Garden Party Show as Frontman Dennis Lyxzén Suffers Major Heart Attack
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