Reason News

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20082090

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

514325984

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Apr 16, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.94%chance

252163782

OptionVotes

YES

2504

1272

Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons?

Aug 19, 12:01 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

384177

OptionVotes

YES

3539

3447

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

Apr 5, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.33%chance

535969

OptionVotes

YES

1071

770

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

Feb 22, 7:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

20830648

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

YES

1008

945

Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason by the end of 2024?

Jun 28, 4:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.46%chance

16040357

OptionVotes

YES

3191

1567

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Aug 15, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.7%chance

926803

OptionVotes

YES

2215

2030

Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)

Jan 5, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.24%chance

264851

OptionVotes

YES

1693

840

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?

Mar 5, 3:43 PMJan 2, 12:00 PM

11.8%chance

569212

OptionVotes

YES

2239

1151

Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?

May 20, 9:03 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

42.24%chance

391444

OptionVotes

YES

1171

823

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Reason News

Prediction markets for Reason

Prediction markets for Reason

Prediction markets for Reason

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons?

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Will Donald Trump be admitted to a hospital for any reason by the end of 2024?

Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030?

Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)

[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?

Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Reason

Prediction markets for Reason

Prediction markets for Reason

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Will Biden have to step down from his current (or any future) Presidential role due to health reasons?

AI solves the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) by 2028

If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)