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Prediction markets for Quantum Systems

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

121005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

944

Will quantum computers simulate complex biological systems faster or more accurately than classical computers by 2026?

Nov 19, 4:22 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.54%chance

13541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

929

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

70.85%chance

14624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1543

892

Quantum Telescopes by 2030?

Feb 15, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.35%chance

10226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

986

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

464347

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

855

Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number before 2026?

Dec 29, 9:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.93%chance

191177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.8%chance

11522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

968

Will the US government adopt and deploy a post-quantum cryptography standard before 2030?

Nov 17, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

87.47%chance

16476

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

915

When will (inelastic) graviton-* scattering be observed?

Aug 31, 3:45 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.02%chance

440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

128

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.74%chance

9329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

362

158

Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?

Aug 20, 2:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15646

Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?

Feb 25, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

9182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

155

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