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Prediction markets for Public Services

Will there be a public photo of Trump performing Community Service in 2024?

May 31, 6:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.37%chance

131472

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in NYC by the end of 2024?

Oct 4, 1:31 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

15.2%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

55

Will Oregon voters pass or fail SJR 34 (Independent Public Service Compensation Commission) and by what margin?

Feb 6, 8:30 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

4247

Will Oregon voters approve SJR 34 (Independent Public Service Compensation Commission)?

Jan 24, 10:02 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

85.5%chance

2126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

384

252

Which of the names below will I receive significant evidence are NOT bound by non-disparagement agreements by EOY 2024

May 30, 10:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

93654

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Feb 13, 8:04 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

70.09%chance

38165595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11743

6690

Will Conjecture Earn >$2M revenue?

Dec 18, 2:07 PMNov 30, 12:00 PM

42.43%chance

182363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

2116

In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?

Jul 10, 6:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.26%chance

182157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

970

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

704402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

1248

Will AI-operated haircuts be bookable in at least two cities by the end of 2025?

Sep 26, 9:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.44%chance

301519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1404

922

Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035

Jun 10, 1:57 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.01%chance

9900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1199

834

Will Waymo give public rides to/from SFO airport terminals (driverless or not) by the end of 2024?

Dec 12, 4:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.72%chance

261118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

930

Articles

Latest stories

Canada to Acquire Quebec Bridge from CN Rail, Invest $1 Billion in Restoration
Authors
7
2 months
Canada
World

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