Progressive Representatives News

Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?

Nov 28, 1:17 PMJul 22, 4:59 AM

33%chance

394012

OptionVotes

YES

2130

1511

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.38%chance

7235

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.29%chance

131295

OptionVotes

YES

1112

899

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

43.21%chance

7440

OptionVotes

YES

1146

872

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

May 17, 10:03 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

57.77%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

1170

855

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

39.33%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

1242

805

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Jun 8, 9:10 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.92%chance

11570

OptionVotes

YES

1249

801

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

62.67%chance

9635

OptionVotes

YES

1296

772

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

1033

921

By mid-2024, will we have established test for consciousness in AGI based on LLMs?

Dec 16, 2:21 PMAug 7, 4:59 AM

6%chance

11684

OptionVotes

YES

1382

929

Will Mistral-Large be considered on par or better than GPT-5? (text)

Jan 12, 11:16 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

3.97%chance

181212

OptionVotes

YES

2031

893

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2028?

Jun 11, 8:06 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

28.49%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

158

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Progressive Representatives News

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

By mid-2024, will we have established test for consciousness in AGI based on LLMs?

Will Mistral-Large be considered on par or better than GPT-5? (text)

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2028?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Prediction markets for Progressive Representatives

Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2034?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

Will LLMs' loss function achieve the level of entropy of human text by the end of 2030?