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Prediction markets for Progressive International
Prediction markets for Progressive International
If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity
Feb 16, 11:53 PM
17
0
Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)
Oct 4, 5:15 PM
Oct 2, 6:59 AM
40.1%
chance
34
2511
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1781
1157
Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?
Jun 10, 7:27 PM
Jun 11, 3:59 AM
48.04%
chance
12
1390
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1040
961
Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?
Mar 12, 11:13 AM
Mar 1, 10:59 PM
32.74%
chance
19
1203
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1007
915
Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?
Mar 10, 2:41 PM
Mar 1, 10:59 PM
19.21%
chance
19
885
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1030
949
Will it be confirmed by 2026 that OpenAI had a model/system called Q* or Zero?
Nov 23, 12:32 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
88.6%
chance
11
526
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1367
889
Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Oct 31, 3:56 PM
Jan 2, 6:59 AM
66.83%
chance
5
91
Option
Votes
NO
YES
257
133
Will I think that scheming benchmarks are more promising than game theory benchmarks (for defining trusted) in 1y?
Dec 13, 6:30 PM
Dec 14, 7:59 AM
54.16%
chance
4
64
Option
Votes
NO
YES
92
88
How can I get this huge list of Google Photos bugs fixed? [currently a 43m long rambling video]
Nov 15, 10:47 PM
9
0
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3 months
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5
3 months
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5
5 months
Economics
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