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Prediction markets for Product Marketing

In what year will Manifold discover product-market fit?

Jan 9, 4:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.28%chance

460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

322

84

Will animal free dairy products have >5% market share by 2028?

Feb 15, 9:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

112

At the end of 2024, will Manifold’s highest daily active user [DAU] product be Markets?

Apr 7, 4:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.22%chance

8761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

886

146

Will James' 100 USD prediction market product work for Manifold Love?

Feb 6, 1:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.53%chance

8506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

533

71

In Jan 2028, will prediction markets occupy a new product vertical? [Resolves to Poll]

Sep 26, 12:57 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

13.79%chance

275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

40

By manifest 2024 there will be a new product vertical for prediction markets/forecasting. [Manifold Poll]

Sep 25, 6:23 PMOct 3, 6:59 AM

13.01%chance

6293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

290

78

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

56.76%chance

579170832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15446

12213

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Will Tesla prevail in its suit against Matthews International over battery trade secrets?

Jun 18, 6:15 PMJun 18, 6:59 AM

43.44%chance

51687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11410

8764

8) The Microsoft/OpenAI relationship will begin to fray.

Dec 25, 1:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.29%chance

515113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

893

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?

Dec 22, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

35.23%chance

53754397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5458

2186

Will a software engineer get a job through the tech hiring startup Otherbranch.com by the end of June?

May 28, 12:35 AMJul 2, 6:59 AM

47.37%chance

17987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3688

3322

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