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Prediction markets for Problem

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?

Aug 15, 2:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22%chance

441136375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4181

3465

Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2028?

Aug 15, 8:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43.19%chance

20258342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4060

3533

Will AI be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024?

Apr 16, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.91%chance

252163532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

1328

Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025?

Mar 14, 8:18 PMApr 1, 7:00 AM

6.18%chance

538894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

744

Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct?

Mar 15, 7:24 AMDec 31, 7:24 AM

60.5%chance

8127771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

645

Will any remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?

Oct 19, 8:49 PMOct 27, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8016335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

973

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

36.55%chance

10451006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

1031

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

Mar 6, 8:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

62.78%chance

20920662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

1406

By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?

Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

175165

Will ≥20 Atlas Fellows be actively working on ambitious projects aimed at large-scale problems? (M2500 subsidy)

Oct 4, 5:15 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

40.1%chance

342511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

1157

Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)

Jan 5, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.24%chance

264851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1693

840

Can NP-complete problems be solved in polynomial time?

Nov 23, 2:25 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

5.45%chance

305457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

928

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