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PLO News
Prediction markets for PLO
Prediction markets for PLO
After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 2, 6:19 PM
Nov 9, 11:59 PM
200
12629
After 18 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?
Nov 10, 11:59 AM
Nov 9, 11:59 PM
10
1210
Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?
Oct 29, 5:12 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
60
3339
By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
Dec 2, 5:23 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
42.56%
chance
168
70748
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2080
1864
Will AI be able to correctly plot data in MS Paint before October 2024?
Sep 22, 7:34 PM
Oct 2, 6:59 AM
24.84%
chance
16
601
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1225
902
Convictions over Reichsbürger coup d'état plot by 2025?
Dec 8, 11:13 PM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
80.38%
chance
12
185
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1038
976
Will AI interpretability techniques reveal an AI to have been plotting to take over the world before 2028?
Aug 12, 8:39 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
13.87%
chance
21
637
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1133
955
Will the Kentish plover, be a “resident” or “reintroduced” breeding bird in the UK by 2050?
Nov 2, 3:44 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Will at least one of William Eden's kids be part of "the plot" and uplift humanity out of NPC-dom by 2035?
Sep 21, 8:00 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
19.59%
chance
3
80
Option
Votes
YES
NO
190
74
Will "Bettors distribution plot" be added to Manifold by the end of 2024?
Jul 20, 9:25 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
23.22%
chance
6
119
Option
Votes
YES
NO
209
97
Will AI/foundation models be able to extract the exponential parameter alpha of an exponential plot by EOY 2025?
Jan 17, 10:28 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
64.3%
chance
2
20
Option
Votes
NO
YES
110
75
Will a second assassination plot against Ben-Gvir be publicly identified in 2024?
Apr 25, 10:51 PM
Jan 1, 6:59 AM
53.82%
chance
5
84
Option
Votes
NO
YES
175
146
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