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Prediction markets for Placebo

Will "Why I don't believe in the placebo effect" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 11, 12:04 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will we get conclusive evidence to prove that ALTO-100 performs better than placebo against Depression and/or PTSD before 2027?

Jan 31, 7:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.31%chance

396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

64

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2033?

May 18, 12:47 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

50.38%chance

7235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Jun 2, 5:05 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

55.29%chance

131295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

899

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

May 20, 5:26 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

43.21%chance

7440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

872

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

May 21, 10:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

39.33%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2035?

May 17, 1:38 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

62.67%chance

9635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

772

Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?

Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM

56.04%chance

561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

949

940

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2037?

Jun 16, 10:17 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.51%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2040?

Jun 23, 11:12 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.51%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2038?

Jun 18, 5:57 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

73.88%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2036?

Jun 15, 11:37 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

73.88%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

59

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