Pentagon News

Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

Dec 30, 6:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

42.83%chance

24843202

OptionVotes

YES

1414

606

Will the jelly fish UFO video authenticity be confirmed by the pentagon or DoD by December 31, 2025

Jan 18, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.22%chance

13720

OptionVotes

YES

1539

803

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

9.57%chance

19741

OptionVotes

YES

1475

883

Will "Pentagon allow calculators on military entrance exam"?

Aug 23, 4:37 AMAug 31, 9:59 PM

73.63%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

203

121

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Apr 4, 1:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.36%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

112

108

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

8534

What unsolved mysteries will have major developments before 2025? [Free Response - Unlinked]

Dec 4, 1:20 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

344220

Will Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict by the end of 2024? [Ṁ1,000 subsidy]

Oct 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

9.7%chance

28670512

OptionVotes

YES

9212

1919

Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024?

Aug 14, 6:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.8%chance

301122

OptionVotes

YES

997

960

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.79%chance

311098

OptionVotes

YES

997

986

Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?

May 23, 2:00 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

8.94%chance

374609

OptionVotes

YES

2261

723

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Dec 30, 6:44 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.01%chance

302659

OptionVotes

YES

1008

927

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Pentagon News

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

Will the jelly fish UFO video authenticity be confirmed by the pentagon or DoD by December 31, 2025

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will "Pentagon allow calculators on military entrance exam"?

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

What unsolved mysteries will have major developments before 2025? [Free Response - Unlinked]

Will Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict by the end of 2024? [Ṁ1,000 subsidy]

Will any image-generation AI be able to consistently draw simple polygons by the end of 2024?

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?

Will any image model available to the public be able to reliably produce images of every regular polygon before 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Will any image model be able to draw a pentagon before 2025?

Will the jelly fish UFO video authenticity be confirmed by the pentagon or DoD by December 31, 2025

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Will "Pentagon allow calculators on military entrance exam"?

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

What unsolved mysteries will have major developments before 2025? [Free Response - Unlinked]