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Prediction markets for Oversight

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

67.77%chance

10360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

963

Will AI replace radiologists as the main reporter of clinical images in the USA (without human oversight) before 2050?

Mar 5, 11:37 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

82.28%chance

261437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

894

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56.66%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

77

64

Benchmark Gap #7: Once 10% of the medical Grand Challenges are "solved", how many months will it be before AI are in common use in hospitals for analyzing medical images with minimal human oversight?

Feb 8, 10:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

295

276

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Mar 24, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19880091

United States v. Apple: The US Department of Justice sues Apple

Mar 30, 10:03 AMOct 28, 6:29 PM

15827

By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?

Jan 9, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.82%chance

737617

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1631

608

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.25%chance

12323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

975

Will any member of Joe Biden's family be indicted for bribery and payoffs from foreign governments by 12/31/2024?

Jul 7, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.73%chance

433174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

959

Will Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2024?

Oct 17, 12:20 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

25.69%chance

1009415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

835

Will the pre-clinical results on the cancer drug AOH1996 be broadly confirmed by independent team(s)?

Aug 3, 12:23 PMAug 3, 9:59 PM

25.67%chance

303447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1325

806

Is Lumina probiotics a scam?

Nov 20, 11:49 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM

23.16%chance

251739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1207

784

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