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Prediction markets for Operational Deployment of

Will Ukrainian Armed Forces deploy Motorized Paragliders in a Combat Operation before 2025?

Oct 9, 4:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.53%chance

3106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

154

35

Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?

Sep 25, 2:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.3%chance

16603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

984

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.05%chance

111515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

719

Will an AI autonomously earn more than $10,000 not through financial trading, starting with no more than $100 by 2026?

Jun 15, 8:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

28.32%chance

465531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

629

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

24.87%chance

16939

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

919

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.88%chance

161520

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

874

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US army engage in combat against the Russian army?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

80.06%chance

465822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2004

499

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.15%chance

291297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

921

Will AI be in used in a cellular wireless (5G, 6G) physical layer before 2027?

Jan 26, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.48%chance

15178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

993

Will autonomous lethal weapons platforms or "robot soldiers" be deployed in any conflict by end 2024?

Jul 30, 11:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.09%chance

549253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

906

804

Will the U.S. Congress pass, a bill by January 10, 2025 a major bill which regulates AI.

Aug 12, 12:00 AMJan 12, 4:59 AM

13.68%chance

273324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

789

Will Zoox obtain an Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Permit from the CA DMV in 2024

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

12434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

906

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Indian Navy Ships Arrive in Singapore, Enhance Maritime Ties Amid South China Sea Tensions
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2 months
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