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Prediction markets for of Passports

Will citizens of the US be able to travel to more than 50% of countries without a physical passport by 2050?

Oct 21, 10:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.18%chance

11168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

968

Will Melina's Green Card get revoked because Sweden confiscated her passport?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMAug 23, 3:59 AM

7.85%chance

173283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

910

Will Serbian passport holders at any point be required to obtain visas to enter Schengen countries by Jan 1st 2026?

Oct 20, 7:56 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

32.15%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

73

When will Jair Bolsonaro receive his passport back?

Feb 9, 9:35 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

7390

Will Russia stop or suspend issuing passports in consulates in 2024?

Apr 25, 10:51 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

18.04%chance

13828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

313

145

Will 50% or more Americans have a passport by EOY 2028?

Dec 20, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73%chance

584

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

89

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Feb 20, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.12%chance

22899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4324

3929

Will there be a virtual state with no physical territory by 2040?

Aug 19, 10:10 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

27.13%chance

411913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

1184

Will I be denied entry to the USA or Canada before the end of 2024?

Oct 11, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

14367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

973

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

69.43%chance

241852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

475

Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?

Apr 1, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.8%chance

254723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

944

Will the Russian civilians who provide signatures to get Boris Nadezhdin on the ballot suffer government reprisal?

Jan 27, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.92%chance

14883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

891

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