Non News

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50.52%chance

6385

OptionVotes

YES

10116

9880

Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?

Jun 11, 8:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.28%chance

173210

OptionVotes

YES

13145

8666

Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?

Aug 15, 8:16 AMOct 31, 1:29 PM

72.31%chance

5325022

OptionVotes

YES

3746

2515

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Apr 24, 11:45 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

37.55%chance

161096

OptionVotes

YES

2466

1654

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Mar 17, 5:57 PMOct 17, 10:59 PM

18.14%chance

6013411

OptionVotes

YES

1937

294

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Jun 15, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.98%chance

655

OptionVotes

YES

139

Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?

May 30, 7:13 AMJul 31, 10:59 PM

92.82%chance

2328718

OptionVotes

YES

3596

278

In 2024, will India lift its ban on the export of non-basmati white rice?

Dec 2, 12:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.19%chance

464894

OptionVotes

YES

2540

1122

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Apr 13, 6:27 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.23%chance

135490

OptionVotes

YES

2106

1843

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.82%chance

915647

OptionVotes

YES

1809

1107

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.41%chance

673087

OptionVotes

YES

1259

1167

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Non News

Prediction markets for Non

Prediction markets for Non

Prediction markets for Non

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?

Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?

In 2024, will India lift its ban on the export of non-basmati white rice?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Will every non-Trump US president have studied at law school or served in the military until 2040?

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Non

Prediction markets for Non

Prediction markets for Non

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?

Will the [non-Trump] frontrunner for 2024 Republican Presidential nominee promise to pardon Trump if they are elected?

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Complex communication with a non-human animal by 2050

Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?