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Prediction markets for No Doubt
Prediction markets for No Doubt
What will be true of the next person to walk on the moon? [ADD RESPONSES]
Apr 7, 5:06 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
45
3949
Black Mirror Season 7 [Prop bets/Megamarket]
Mar 20, 7:40 PM
Mar 28, 6:59 AM
13
381
Will this paper: “ Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely” be disproven or severely held in doubt before 2025
Jun 17, 7:28 AM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
50.77%
chance
47
2891
Option
Votes
NO
YES
991
980
Will Banksy's identity become public and beyond doubt by 2030?
Jan 7, 1:32 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
64.03%
chance
16
202
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1019
986
Make me doubt whether creating house-elves is morally okay.
Oct 17, 4:29 PM
0
0
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Sep 1, 3:51 AM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
52%
chance
1211
2504280
Option
Votes
YES
NO
12344
8810
Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?
Aug 29, 5:06 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
80.21%
chance
481
496588
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1126
1045
Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?
Nov 20, 3:41 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
31.91%
chance
83
11985
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1962
467
Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?
Sep 13, 8:25 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
48.27%
chance
564
806492
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4133
2575
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) before the end of 2024?
Jul 9, 7:28 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
13.4%
chance
392
332358
Option
Votes
YES
NO
9598
1574
Let's all bet on what Slay the Spire 2 will be like! Go to town
Jun 17, 4:16 PM
Jul 1, 6:59 AM
7
9075
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
Jan 25, 12:24 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.4%
chance
207
22119
Option
Votes
YES
NO
4089
1178
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13
3 months
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5
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5
3 months
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19
3 months
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46
3 months
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5
3 months
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5
4 months
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5
6 months
Culture
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4
6 months
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