New Scientist News

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

10098

9894

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.15%chance

6515913

OptionVotes

YES

7087

5310

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Jul 26, 2:17 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.22%chance

13989315

OptionVotes

YES

32920

629

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

YES

1041

925

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

29.99%chance

669182

OptionVotes

YES

1394

752

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

3277

305

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.68%chance

132914

OptionVotes

YES

1075

955

Will Google Deepmind's autonomous agent be based on Gemini?

Sep 20, 9:27 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

75.17%chance

14287

OptionVotes

YES

1030

979

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

Jul 26, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25.46%chance

301005

OptionVotes

YES

1019

861

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Sep 13, 8:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.42%chance

16728

OptionVotes

YES

1532

851

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.48%chance

18944

OptionVotes

YES

1690

836

Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026?

Mar 11, 12:19 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.02%chance

191096

OptionVotes

YES

1281

786

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New Scientist News

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Will Google Deepmind's autonomous agent be based on Gemini?

Will the Gulf Stream system (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) collapse before end of 2030?

Will the first successful implant of a 3D-printed heart be performed before 2026?

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

Will Yann LeCun remain chief AI scientist at Meta until 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Prediction markets for New Scientist

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Will the "First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" paper be retracted (by 2025)?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.