New Look News

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

Dec 3, 11:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2120

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5055650

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?

Feb 21, 5:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43%chance

10919074

OptionVotes

YES

1394

903

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?

Feb 18, 1:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.01%chance

503673

OptionVotes

YES

1116

944

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.32%chance

271336

OptionVotes

YES

1041

925

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Sep 27, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.2%chance

10021004

OptionVotes

YES

2157

2152

Assault weapons ban before 2025

Nov 19, 6:48 AMJan 1, 6:02 AM

24.16%chance

585569

OptionVotes

YES

2304

1301

If Eliezer charitably reviewed my work, he would update his p(doom) to < 0.1.

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.95%chance

132046

OptionVotes

YES

340

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.52%chance

216782

OptionVotes

YES

3277

305

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

31.11%chance

685064

OptionVotes

YES

1305

761

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.5%chance

13171

OptionVotes

YES

1003

990

Will I adopt a suggestion from this market's thread for a personal goals market on the topic of self care?

Jun 17, 9:45 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.39%chance

4117

OptionVotes

YES

1092

916

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New Look News

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Prediction markets for New Look

Prediction markets for New Look

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Assault weapons ban before 2025

If Eliezer charitably reviewed my work, he would update his p(doom) to < 0.1.

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will I adopt a suggestion from this market's thread for a personal goals market on the topic of self care?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for New Look

Prediction markets for New Look

Prediction markets for New Look

Manifold+Goodreads - mc-ul - I add new books to read, later resolve to my rating. I won't look at your positions

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2038?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?

Assault weapons ban before 2025